China vs Saudi Arabia

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 80%. China won all five games since 27 August, including 105–61 Philippines, 105–59 Bahrain and 99–61 Kazakhstan; Saudi Arabia won only one of seven since 21 August. The full-game model favors China by 17 points, but its 92% estimate is discounted. Main risk: Saudi Arabia just scored 100 against Indonesia, lost only 80–86 to Japan, and the 2025 H2H was a narrow 93–88 China win; current rosters are unverified.