Sharipov M. vs Harris L.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 71%. Harris took a set in eight of nine completed hard-court matches (seven best-of-three and two best-of-five matches), beating Tomic, Rocha, Llamas Ruiz and Matsuoka and taking a set from Tsitsipas. Main risk: Sharipov has five wins in six September matches, including Kotov and Daniel, and Harris needed three sets yesterday; the opponent current form is stronger than the ranking gap suggests. The best-of-five results carry less weight for today's best-of-three set market.