H. Beer Sheva vs Din. Zagreb

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 69%. Six of H. Beer Sheva's last ten and nine of Din. Zagreb's last ten cleared 2.5 goals. The hosts recently lost 1-4 to Maccabi Tel Aviv and 2-5 at Sabah Baku; Zagreb lost 2-4 at Osijek and 1-3 at Viking. Model over probability is 73%. Main risk: both have recent low-scoring wins, opposition differs across leagues, and the only H2Hs are from 2018.