Trevisan M. vs Maristany G.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 79%. Trevisan M. won a set in 9/10 (90%) recent completed clay matches; the high-quality match model's 48% outright forecast converts to a conservative 74% win-a-set estimate, the current 50% no-vig outright market implies about 75% to win a set, and there is no usable dated H2H. Main risk: 1/10 recent clay matches ended in a straight-set loss.