Dellien H. vs Dodig M.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 75%. Dodig M. won a set in 8/9 (89%) recent completed clay matches; the high-quality match model's 44% outright forecast converts to a conservative 71% win-a-set estimate, the current 45% no-vig outright market implies about 72% to win a set, and dated H2H shows a set in 1/2. Main risk: 1/9 recent clay matches ended in a straight-set loss.