Carle M. L. vs Vedder E.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 76%. Vedder E. won a set in 8/10 (80%) recent completed clay matches; the medium-quality match model's 53% outright forecast converts to a conservative 77% win-a-set estimate, the current 47% no-vig outright market implies about 73% to win a set, and there is no usable dated H2H. Main risk: 2/10 recent clay matches ended in a straight-set loss.