Jones F. vs Dencheva R.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 86%. Jones F. won a set in 9/10 (90%) recent completed clay matches; the high-quality match model's 70% outright forecast converts to a conservative 87% win-a-set estimate, the current 68% no-vig outright market implies about 86% to win a set, and there is no usable dated H2H. Main risk: 1/10 recent clay matches ended in a straight-set loss.