Tomic B. vs Ivashka I.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 70%. Tomic B. won a set in 6/8 (75%) recent completed hard matches; the medium-quality match model's 49% outright forecast converts to a conservative 74% win-a-set estimate, the current 44% no-vig outright market implies about 71% to win a set, and there is no usable dated H2H. Main risk: 2/8 recent hard matches ended in a straight-set loss.