Boston Red Sox vs Athletics

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 69%. Boston are 9-1 in their last ten scoring 6.6 runs to 3.5 conceded, the Athletics are 1-9 scoring 3.0 and conceding 6.2, and Boston have won the last two meetings and lead the series 6-4. Main risk: MLB single games are high variance and four of these ten head-to-heads went to the Athletics, so a strong opposing start neutralises the form gap.