Pegula J. vs Shnaider D.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 72%. Pegula is 8-2 in her last ten and 7-2 on hard, and she leads this head-to-head 4-0 including a 2-0 win over Shnaider in Washington one week ago; the market price of 1.37 implies 69% for the same side. Main risk: Shnaider has won three of her last four and beat Samsonova and Kalinskaya this month, so she arrives in form despite the head-to-head.