Masur D. vs Rodionov J.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 92%. Rodionov J. won a set in 9/10 (90%) recent completed hard matches; the high-quality match model's 79% outright forecast converts to a conservative 91% win-a-set estimate, the current 80% no-vig outright market implies about 92% to win a set, and dated H2H shows a set in 1/1. Main risk: 1/10 recent hard matches ended in a straight-set loss.