Moeller M. vs Soto M.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 83%. Moeller M. won a set in 7/9 (78%) recent completed clay matches; the high-quality match model's 61% outright forecast converts to a conservative 82% win-a-set estimate, the current 64% no-vig outright market implies about 84% to win a set, and dated H2H shows a set in 1/1. Main risk: 2/9 recent clay matches ended in a straight-set loss.