Kotov P. vs Delaney Ja.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 87%. Kotov P. won a set in 9/10 (90%) recent completed hard matches; the high-quality match model's 73% outright forecast converts to a conservative 88% win-a-set estimate, the current 73% no-vig outright market implies about 88% to win a set, and there is no usable dated H2H. Main risk: 1/10 recent hard matches ended in a straight-set loss.