Sabalenka A. vs Noskova L.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 89%. Sabalenka A. won a set in 9/10 (90%) recent completed hard matches; the medium-quality match model's 73% outright forecast converts to a conservative 88% win-a-set estimate, the current 66% no-vig outright market implies about 85% to win a set, and dated H2H shows a set in 1/1. Main risk: 1/10 recent hard matches ended in a straight-set loss.