Ortenzi J. vs Stoiana M.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 84%. Stoiana M. won a set in 8/10 (80%) recent completed hard matches; the medium-quality match model's 84% outright forecast converts to a conservative 94% win-a-set estimate, the current 92% no-vig outright market implies about 97% to win a set, and there is no usable dated H2H. Main risk: 2/10 recent hard matches ended in a straight-set loss.