Petkovic M. vs Pellegrino A.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 85%. Pellegrino A. won a set in 9/10 (90%) recent completed clay matches; the high-quality match model's 69% outright forecast converts to a conservative 86% win-a-set estimate, the current 67% no-vig outright market implies about 85% to win a set, and there is no usable dated H2H. Main risk: 1/10 recent clay matches ended in a straight-set loss.