Cuenin S. vs Heide G.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 78%. Cuenin S. won a set in 10/10 (100%) recent completed clay matches; the high-quality match model's 39% outright forecast converts to a conservative 67% win-a-set estimate, the current 36% no-vig outright market implies about 65% to win a set, and there is no usable dated H2H. Main risk: the match model gives only 39% outright win probability.