La Serna J. M. vs Jianu F. C.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 78%. La Serna J. M. won a set in 9/10 (90%) recent completed clay matches; the high-quality match model's 48% outright forecast converts to a conservative 74% win-a-set estimate, the current 47% no-vig outright market implies about 73% to win a set, and there is no usable dated H2H. Main risk: 1/10 recent clay matches ended in a straight-set loss.