Aboian V. vs Martin Manzano J. C.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 76%. Aboian V. won a set in 8/10 (80%) recent completed clay matches; the high-quality match model's 52% outright forecast converts to a conservative 76% win-a-set estimate, the current 50% no-vig outright market implies about 75% to win a set, and there is no usable dated H2H. Main risk: 2/10 recent clay matches ended in a straight-set loss.