Aguiard E. vs Sultanov K.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 77%. Aguiard E. won a set in 8/10 (80%) recent completed hard matches; the high-quality match model's 45% outright forecast converts to a conservative 72% win-a-set estimate, the current 41% no-vig outright market implies about 69% to win a set, and dated H2H shows a set in 1/1. Main risk: 2/10 recent hard matches ended in a straight-set loss.