Hara Friend J. D. vs Ribecai M.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 68%. Ribecai M. won a set in 7/9 (78%) recent completed hard matches; the medium-quality match model's 43% outright forecast converts to a conservative 70% win-a-set estimate, the current 36% no-vig outright market implies about 65% to win a set, and there is no usable dated H2H. Main risk: 2/9 recent hard matches ended in a straight-set loss.