Osaka N. vs Rybakina E.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 82%. Rybakina E. won a set in 8/9 (89%) recent completed hard matches; the medium-quality match model's 61% outright forecast converts to a conservative 82% win-a-set estimate, the current 54% no-vig outright market implies about 78% to win a set, and dated H2H shows a set in 1/1. Main risk: 1/9 recent hard matches ended in a straight-set loss.