Poljicak M. vs Sakellaridis S.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 80%. Sakellaridis S. won a set in 8/10 (80%) recent completed clay matches; the high-quality match model's 61% outright forecast converts to a conservative 82% win-a-set estimate, the current 61% no-vig outright market implies about 82% to win a set, and there is no usable dated H2H. Main risk: 2/10 recent clay matches ended in a straight-set loss.