Mrva M. vs Moeller M.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 79%. Mrva M. won a set in 8/10 (80%) recent completed clay matches; the high-quality match model's 58% outright forecast converts to a conservative 80% win-a-set estimate, the current 59% no-vig outright market implies about 81% to win a set, and there is no usable dated H2H. Main risk: 2/10 recent clay matches ended in a straight-set loss.