Brouwer G. vs Martineau M.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 80%. Martineau M. won a set in 8/10 (80%) recent completed hard matches; the high-quality match model's 63% outright forecast converts to a conservative 83% win-a-set estimate, the current 61% no-vig outright market implies about 82% to win a set, and there is no usable dated H2H. Main risk: 2/10 recent hard matches ended in a straight-set loss.