Zheng M. vs Gea A.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 84%. Zheng M. won a set in 9/10 (90%) recent completed hard matches; the medium-quality match model's 52% outright forecast converts to a conservative 76% win-a-set estimate, the current 58% no-vig outright market implies about 80% to win a set, and dated H2H shows a set in 2/2. Main risk: 1/10 recent hard matches ended in a straight-set loss.