Andreeva M. vs Bartunkova N.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 88%. Andreeva M. won a set in 9/10 (90%) recent completed hard matches; the high-quality match model's 77% outright forecast converts to a conservative 90% win-a-set estimate, the current 78% no-vig outright market implies about 91% to win a set, and there is no usable dated H2H. Main risk: 1/10 recent hard matches ended in a straight-set loss.