Nikles J. vs Dodig M.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 88%. Dodig M. won a set in 8/9 (89%) recent completed clay matches; the medium-quality match model's 76% outright forecast converts to a conservative 90% win-a-set estimate, the current 82% no-vig outright market implies about 93% to win a set, and there is no usable dated H2H. Main risk: 1/9 recent clay matches ended in a straight-set loss.