Fritz T. vs Cerundolo F.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 85%. Fritz T. won a set in 9/10 (90%) recent completed hard matches; the medium-quality match model's 76% outright forecast converts to a conservative 90% win-a-set estimate, the current 83% no-vig outright market implies about 93% to win a set, and there is no usable dated H2H. Main risk: 1/10 recent hard matches ended in a straight-set loss.