Navarro E. vs Muchova K.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 85%. Muchova K. won a set in 8/10 (80%) recent completed hard matches; the high-quality match model's 79% outright forecast converts to a conservative 91% win-a-set estimate, the current 77% no-vig outright market implies about 90% to win a set, and there is no usable dated H2H. Main risk: 2/10 recent hard matches ended in a straight-set loss.