Wu Y. vs Alcaraz C.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 92%. Alcaraz C. won a set in 8/9 (89%) recent completed hard matches; the high-quality match model's 89% outright forecast converts to a conservative 96% win-a-set estimate, the current 90% no-vig outright market implies about 96% to win a set, and dated H2H shows a set in 1/1. Main risk: 1/9 recent hard matches ended in a straight-set loss.