Schoenhaus M. vs Dodig M.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 81%. Dodig M. won a set in 8/9 (89%) recent completed clay matches; the medium-quality match model's 58% outright forecast converts to a conservative 80% win-a-set estimate, the current 53% no-vig outright market implies about 77% to win a set, and there is no usable dated H2H. Main risk: 1/9 recent clay matches ended in a straight-set loss.