Paolini J. vs Cirstea S.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 83%. Cirstea S. won a set in 9/10 (90%) recent completed hard matches; the high-quality match model's 61% outright forecast converts to a conservative 82% win-a-set estimate, the current 61% no-vig outright market implies about 82% to win a set, and there is no usable dated H2H. Main risk: 1/10 recent hard matches ended in a straight-set loss.