Heide G. vs Monteiro T.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 75%. Monteiro T. won a set in 9/10 (90%) recent completed clay matches; the high-quality match model's 39% outright forecast converts to a conservative 67% win-a-set estimate, the current 41% no-vig outright market implies about 69% to win a set, and there is no usable dated H2H. Main risk: the match model gives only 39% outright win probability.