Milev Y. vs La Serna J. M.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 82%. La Serna J. M. won a set in 8/10 (80%) recent completed clay matches; the high-quality match model's 68% outright forecast converts to a conservative 86% win-a-set estimate, the current 71% no-vig outright market implies about 87% to win a set, and there is no usable dated H2H. Main risk: 2/10 recent clay matches ended in a straight-set loss.