XL5 vs Expos

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 74%. Expos are 9-1 in their last ten averaging 10.2 runs scored to 5.6 conceded, XL5 are 2-8 conceding 13.0 per game, and the model has the run expectation at 11.2 to 6.4. Main risk: the head-to-head is only 2-1 to the Expos with XL5 taking one of the three, and totals near 20 runs mean a single wild inning can swing the result.