Nippon Ham Fighters vs Rakuten Gold. Eagles

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 69%. Nippon Ham are 7-3 conceding just 2.1 runs per game, Rakuten are 2-8 conceding 6.0, and the Fighters have won six of the last ten meetings including three of the most recent four (6-2, 4-3, 6-3). Main risk: Rakuten took the last two head-to-heads played before that run by 3-2 and 3-1, and NPB games are routinely decided by one run.