Li A. vs Rybakina E.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 82%. Rybakina is 7-2 on hard in her recent surface sample and beat Kasatkina in Toronto, while Li is 3-7 on hard and lost 0-2 to both Frech and Korneeva in the last three weeks. Main risk: Rybakina is only 5-5 across all surfaces after a poor grass swing and there is no head-to-head to lean on, so a slow start against a free-hitting opponent is possible.