Leuven B (Bel) vs Genk U23 (Bel)

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 78%. The football model rates over 2.5 at 81% with 4.21 expected goals; the teams' last ten scorelines cleared 2.5 in 9/10 and 8/10 respectively. Main risk: this is a club friendly and the only H2H sample is too small to stabilize the estimate.