Essex Arrows vs Herts

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 72%. Essex have won seven of ten head-to-heads with Herts including 19-2 and 9-1 in the most recent series, and Herts have two wins in ten; the model rates the home win at 83% (high quality). Main risk: Essex's overall form is only 5-5 and Herts did steal a 1-0 in the last series.