Zambia vs Togo

Prediction and result

Before kickoff, the model made Togo favourites at 61% (Zambia 15%, draw 24%). That rests on expected goals of 1.52 to 0.58, 4 wins in Togo's last 10 matches to 1 for Zambia and 5 wins from the last 8 meetings to 3. It put over 2.5 goals at 35% and both teams scoring at 34%. Zambia won 2-0, against the model's 61% for Togo.

Key facts before the match

• Togo are unbeaten in 6 matches.
• Zambia have lost 3 matches in a row.
• They last met on 27 May 2016, when Togo won 1-0.