Football · Eerste Divisie · Netherlands
Waalwijk vs Almere City
Friday, 30 October 2026
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.Match preview
The model makes Almere City favourites at 52% (Waalwijk 28%, draw 20%). That rests on expected goals of 2.04 to 1.45, Almere City sitting 4th in the table to Waalwijk's 11th, 6 wins in Almere City's last 10 matches to 3 for Waalwijk and 5 wins from the last 10 meetings to 3. Bookmakers give Almere City about 32% once their margin is removed, so the model is more confident than the market. It puts over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams scoring at 56%.
Key facts
- Waalwijk have gone 5 matches without a win.
- Waalwijk have scored in all of their last 5 home games.
- Waalwijk average 2.8 goals a game at home.
- Almere City kept 5 clean sheets in their last 10 matches.
- They last met on 17 Mar 2026, when it finished 2-2.
Netherlands•Eerste Divisie
vs
Friday, 30 October 2026 at 22:00
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.H2H: 3-2-5
Last 10 matches
1010
18/1421/10
1.802.10
1.401.00
8/109/10
4/106/10
9/105/10
4/103/10
1/105/10
2/101/10
10/107/10
4/107/10
7/104/10
Home & away form · from last 10 matches
Waalwijk at homeAlmere City away
55
2/53/5
3/50/5
0/52/5
2.802.80
1.401.20
5/55/5
3/54/5
2/53/5
5/53/5
2/52/5
0/52/5
0/50/5
3/55/5
5/53/5
Model Prediction
Expected Goals
Waalwijk: 1.45
Expected Goals
Almere City: 2.04
Waalwijk
28%
Draw
20%
Almere City
52%
Over 2.5: 57%
BTTS: 56%
Quality: high
Market Odds (1X2)
Vig 7.7%
1 — Waalwijk
2.10▲
Implied 44%
Edge -16.2%
X
3.90▲
Implied 24%
Edge -3.8%
2 — Almere City
2.90▲
Implied 32%
Edge +20.0%
Edge = model probability − market implied probability. Positive edge means the model rates that outcome higher than the bookmaker.
Team 1 Form
Waalwijk · # = league position now
23 Oct2026
de Graafschap#16 vs Waalwijk#11
1-1D
18 Oct2026
Waalwijk#11 vs fc Volendam#7
1-1D
09 Oct2026
Heracles#1 vs Waalwijk#11
3-0L
03 Oct2026
Waalwijk#11 vs fc Emmen#2
1-1D
26 Sept2026
Roda#5 vs Waalwijk#11
2-0L
18 Sept2026
Waalwijk#11 vs Maastricht#10
6-1W
11 Sept2026
Jong Ajax#15 vs Waalwijk#11
0-2W
04 Sept2026
Waalwijk#11 vs Nac Breda#6
4-2W
28 Aug2026
Waalwijk#11 vs Jong Psv#12
2-2D
21 Aug2026
Helmond#19 vs Waalwijk#11
1-1D
Team 2 Form
Almere City · # = league position now
23 Oct2026
Almere City#4 vs Roda#5
2-3L
17 Oct2026
fc Emmen#2 vs Almere City#4
2-1L
09 Oct2026
Almere City#4 vs Eindhoven fc#18
3-0W
03 Oct2026
Almere City#4 vs fc Volendam#7
1-0W
25 Sept2026
Dordrecht#17 vs Almere City#4
3-2L
18 Sept2026
Almere City#4 vs Heracles#1
1-0W
11 Sept2026
Maastricht#10 vs Almere City#4
0-4W
04 Sept2026
Almere City#4 vs Jong Ajax#15
0-1L
29 Aug2026
de Graafschap#16 vs Almere City#4
1-4W
21 Aug2026
Vitesse#9 vs Almere City#4
0-3W
Head-to-Head
Last 10 · # = league position now
17 Mar2026
Almere City#4 vs Waalwijk#11
2-2•
30 Aug2025
Waalwijk#11 vs Almere City#4
2-0•
02 Feb2025
Almere City#4 vs Waalwijk#11
1-4•
03 Nov2024
Waalwijk#11 vs Almere City#4
2-0•
03 Aug2024
Almere City#4 vs Waalwijk#11
1-0•
04 Apr2024
Waalwijk#11 vs Almere City#4
0-0•
07 Oct2023
Almere City#4 vs Waalwijk#11
1-0•
14 Aug2020
Almere City#4 vs Waalwijk#11
4-2•
15 Feb2019
Waalwijk#11 vs Almere City#4
0-1•
28 Sept2018
Almere City#4 vs Waalwijk#11
2-1•
Upcoming matches
# = league position now
Waalwijk
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