Udinese (ITA) vs Mainz (GER)

Prediction and result

Before kickoff, the model made Mainz (GER) favourites at 79% (Udinese (ITA) 9%, draw 12%). That rests on expected goals of 2.92 to 0.88 and 7 wins in Mainz (GER)'s last 10 matches to 3 for Udinese (ITA). It put over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams scoring at 49%. It ended 3-3, a draw the model had put at 12%.

Key facts before the match

• Mainz (GER) have won 6 matches in a row.
• Udinese (ITA) have gone 5 matches without a win.