Football · Super League · Switzerland
Thun vs Lugano
Sunday, 25 October 2026
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.Match preview
The model makes Lugano favourites at 89% (Thun 3%, draw 8%). That rests on expected goals of 3.08 to 0.43, Lugano sitting 1st in the table to Thun's 9th, 8 wins in Lugano's last 10 matches to 2 for Thun and 5 wins from the last 10 meetings to 3. Bookmakers give Lugano about 50% once their margin is removed, so the model is more confident than the market. It puts over 2.5 goals at 65% and both teams scoring at 43%.
Key facts
- Lugano have won 4 matches in a row.
- Lugano scored in every one of their last 10 matches.
- They last met on 25 Apr 2026, when Lugano won 1-0.
Switzerland•Super League
vs
Sunday, 25 October 2026 at 16:00
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.H2H: 3-2-5
Last 10 matches
1010
12/1731/11
1.203.10
1.701.10
6/1010/10
6/108/10
8/106/10
4/104/10
2/104/10
4/100/10
6/109/10
5/109/10
5/106/10
Home & away form · from last 10 matches
Thun at homeLugano away
54
1/54/4
1/50/4
3/50/4
0.804.00
1.200.75
2/54/4
2/54/4
0/54/4
3/52/4
1/51/4
2/52/4
3/50/4
1/54/4
1/52/4
Model Prediction
Expected Goals
Thun: 0.43
Expected Goals
Lugano: 3.08
Thun
3%
Draw
8%
Lugano
89%
Over 2.5: 65%
BTTS: 43%
Quality: high
Market Odds (1X2)
Vig 7.0%
1 — Thun
3.50▼
Implied 27%
Edge -23.7%
X
4.00▼
Implied 23%
Edge -15.4%
2 — Lugano
1.87▲
Implied 50%
Edge +39.0%
Edge = model probability − market implied probability. Positive edge means the model rates that outcome higher than the bookmaker.
Team 1 Form
Thun · # = league position now
22 Oct2026
Thun#9 vs Hajduk Split#1
0-1L
18 Oct2026
Schaffhausen vs Thun#9
2-2D
15 Oct2026
Twente#5 vs Thun#9
1-0L
10 Oct2026
Zurich#5 vs Thun#9
4-2L
03 Oct2026
Thun#9 vs Kriens#5
2-0W
20 Sept2026
Vaduz#10 vs Thun#9
1-2W
16 Sept2026
Thun#9 vs Servette#6
2-4L
12 Sept2026
Thun#9 vs Grasshoppers#11
0-1L
06 Sept2026
Sion#3 vs Thun#9
3-2L
02 Sept2026
Thun#9 vs Lausanne#12
0-0D
Team 2 Form
Lugano · # = league position now
22 Oct2026
Getafe#15 vs Lugano#1
2-5W
18 Oct2026
Pully vs Lugano#1
0-4W
15 Oct2026
Lugano#1 vs Crvena Zvezda#22
3-2W
10 Oct2026
Lugano#1 vs Luzern#8
4-0W
02 Oct2026
Lugano#1 vs Verona#12
1-3L
20 Sept2026
Lausanne#12 vs Lugano#1
0-4W
16 Sept2026
Lugano#1 vs St. Gallen#4
4-1W
12 Sept2026
Lugano#1 vs Young Boys#2
2-2D
06 Sept2026
Basel#7 vs Lugano#1
1-3W
03 Sept2026
Lugano#1 vs Servette#6
1-0W
Head-to-Head
Last 10 · # = league position now
25 Apr2026
Thun#9 vs Lugano#1
0-1•
04 Apr2026
Lugano#1 vs Thun#9
1-0•
22 Nov2025
Thun#9 vs Lugano#1
0-1•
27 Jul2025
Lugano#1 vs Thun#9
1-2•
11 Jul2025
Lugano#1 vs Thun#9
2-4•
10 Feb2022
Thun#9 vs Lugano#1
3-4•
15 Jul2020
Lugano#1 vs Thun#9
1-1•
09 Feb2020
Thun#9 vs Lugano#1
3-2•
24 Nov2019
Thun#9 vs Lugano#1
0-3•
28 Jul2019
Lugano#1 vs Thun#9
0-0•
Upcoming matches
# = league position now
Thun
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