South Africa vs Kenya

Match preview

The model makes South Africa favourites at 56% (Kenya 20%, draw 24%). That rests on expected goals of 1.49 to 0.75 and 4 wins in South Africa's last 10 matches to 2 for Kenya. It puts over 2.5 goals at 37% and both teams scoring at 39%.

Key facts

• South Africa are 1st in Africa Cup of Nations on 6 points from 2 games; Kenya are 4th on 1.
• Kenya failed to score in 4 of their last 6 away games.
• South Africa have won 3 matches in a row.
• They last met on 16 Oct 2012, when South Africa won 2-1.
• Kenya concede 2.17 goals a game away from home.