Qarabag vs Safa Baku

Prediction and result

Before kickoff, the model made Qarabag favourites at 66% (Safa Baku 13%, draw 21%). That rests on expected goals of 1.75 to 0.60, 5 wins in Qarabag's last 10 matches to 3 for Safa Baku and 4 wins from the last 4 meetings to 0. It put over 2.5 goals at 42% and both teams scoring at 32%. Qarabag won 1-0, as the model expected.

Key facts before the match

• Safa Baku have lost 3 matches in a row.
• They last met on 12 Feb 2005, when Qarabag won 3-0.