Ponte da Barca vs Amarante

Prediction and result

Before kickoff, the model made Amarante favourites at 48% (Ponte da Barca 29%, draw 23%). That rests on expected goals of 1.52 to 1.11 and 3 wins in Amarante's last 10 matches to 1 for Ponte da Barca. It put over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams scoring at 49%. Amarante won 2-0, as the model expected.