Padova vs Sudtirol

Match preview

The model makes Sudtirol favourites at 50% (Padova 26%, draw 24%). That rests on expected goals of 1.43 to 0.95. Bookmakers give Sudtirol about 31% once their margin is removed, so the model is more confident than the market. It puts over 2.5 goals at 35% and both teams scoring at 42%.

Key facts

• Sudtirol failed to score in 2 of their last 4 away games.
• Padova are 9th in Serie B on 10 points from 8 games; Sudtirol are 7th on 13.
• They last met on 25 Jan 2026, when Sudtirol won 3-0.
• Only 1 of the last 10 meetings had three or more goals.