Benevento vs Catanzaro

Match preview

The model makes Benevento favourites at 78% (Catanzaro 9%, draw 13%). That rests on expected goals of 2.51 to 0.69, Benevento sitting 5th in the table to Catanzaro's 20th, 4 wins in Benevento's last 10 matches to 2 for Catanzaro and 5 wins from the last 10 meetings to 2. Bookmakers give Benevento about 54% once their margin is removed, so the model is more confident than the market. It puts over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams scoring at 52%.

Key facts

• Benevento have scored in all of their last 5 home games.
• They last met on 6 Mar 2016, when it finished 1-1.
• Only 2 of the last 10 meetings had three or more goals.
• Catanzaro concede 2.2 goals a game away from home.