Notts County vs Oxford Utd

Prediction and result

Before kickoff, the model made Oxford Utd favourites at 66% (Notts County 15%, draw 19%). That rests on expected goals of 1.94 to 0.78, 5 wins in Oxford Utd's last 10 matches to 2 for Notts County and 5 wins from the last 9 meetings to 3. It put over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams scoring at 52%. Oxford Utd won 2-1, as the model expected.

Key facts before the match

• They last met on 2 Jan 2016, when Oxford Utd won 4-2.
• 7 of the last 9 meetings had three or more goals.